Sunday, April 18, 2010

Will ESPN's Gamble on the World Cup Pay Off?

original photo: news.haverford.edu

ESPN pronounced this week that its investment in the 2010 FIFA World Cup will be the largest it has ever made on a single sporting event, with the sports broadcaster hoping to improve viewership by 25 to 50 percent over 2006's coverage.

Quoted in the Financial Times, ESPN Executive Vice President for Content, John Skipper said, "We’re pulling out all the stops to make sure people pay attention to the game, because we’re convinced that when they pay attention they’re going to fall in love with the game."

In other words, ESPN and ABC (both of which are owned by Disney) have taken it upon themselves to spread the good word about Soccer to an infamously hostile general public in America.

But will it work and what will it do for the long-term popularity of soccer?

During the 2006 World Cup in Germany - the first time all 64 world cup matches were available in the United States - ABC saw a 103 percent increase from 2002 coverage, while ESPN saw an increase of 150 percent and ESPN 2 saw an increase of nearly 67 percent (NY Times 2006 World Cup Blog).

So adding another 25 to 50 percent on these numbers, it seems like soccer (or at least the Wolrd Cup) has been making astronomical strides over the last 8 years. But if you'll allow me to crunch some more numbers, the growth seems a bit more measured:
  • There are roughly 112 million TV households in the US
  • A 25 percent increase in ESPN's coverage alone would amount to 1.7 million households, a mere 1.5 percent of all households.
  • The Super Bowl, by comparison, draws half of all TV households
The bottom line? Even if ABC/ESPN meets its goals of increasing World Cup viewership by 50 percent, it will still be a poor showing for the world's biggest sporting event during a notoriously slow time for sports coverage in the United States.

Despite all the saber rattling, soccer still has a long way to go in the United States. The best thing that can happen for the sport is for the US Men's National Team to have a good run.

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